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As Nigeria’s political terrain gradually shifts towards the 2027 general elections, the internal dynamics within the African Democratic Congress (ADC) present a looming dilemma. In my view, if ADC conducts a free and fair presidential primary, Peter Obi is likely to defeat former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, given Obi’s rising national popularity, credibility, and image as a transformational leader.
Yet there are indications that Atiku and his strategists are working to ensure that all aspirants under ADC participate in an open primary – a strategy critics believe he can exploit due to his financial influence and deep political networks. Many fear that ‘dollar politics’ – the use of monetary inducements to influence delegate decisions – could once again shape the outcome, overriding public preference for credibility and competence.
Should Atiku emerge as ADC’s presidential candidate to challenge President Bola Tinubu in 2027, some analysts argue that Tinubu could easily win. This view is grounded in Nigeria’s entrenched political culture of informal power rotation between the North and South since 1999. For example, after President Olusegun Obasanjo (South West) completed his tenure, power shifted to President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua (North West). Yar’Adua’s death in 2010 allowed Vice President Goodluck Jonathan (South South) to complete his term and win a full term in 2011.
However, when Jonathan sought re-election in 2015, Northern elites withdrew support despite his administration’s investments in their region, prioritising regional power shift over performance. Atiku himself, alongside other PDP governors, decamped to join the APC merger, paving the way for President Buhari’s victory.
Fast forward to 2022, PDP declined to zone its ticket to the South despite Buhari’s two-term tenure. Atiku contested, while Nyesom Wike also declared interest, leading to an intense primary. Peter Obi, refusing to partake in transactional politics, left PDP for Labour Party (LP). Wike, banking on Northern allies like Aminu Tambuwal, eventually lost as Tambuwal stepped down for Atiku, who consolidated support.
Obi’s political ideology of capacity, competence, and compassion resonated with millions, birthing the Obidient movement. Many observers still argue that Obi won the 2023 election but was allegedly rigged out by INEC under Professor Mahmood Yakubu’s leadership. His victory in Lagos State – Tinubu’s stronghold – and over 25% in the FCT underlined his broad-based appeal.
Atiku has previously stated he would not have contested in 2023 had PDP zoned its ticket to the South. This raises a critical question: If Atiku’s stance was rooted in power rotation, why is he insisting on contesting again in 2027, when conventionally it remains the South’s turn?
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ADC risks replicating PDP’s 2022 crisis if it adopts an open contest approach. Many Southern voters may become apathetic towards the elections, concluding that if power must remain in the North, Tinubu might as well continue, despite criticisms of his governance style.
For ADC’s interim chairman, Senator David Mark, who insists that ADC is a party for all Nigerians, the coming months will test this claim. In my view, Peter Obi remains the party’s most politically attractive figure, with proven electoral value and national appeal. Without dismissing other contenders, his candidacy offers the strongest unifying option.
If ADC repeats PDP’s model, insiders suggest Obi may leave for another platform, though a return to Labour Party is unlikely unless its internal leadership crisis is resolved. Some Obidient loyalists argue that certain LP executives could undermine his candidacy under its banner.
Ultimately, ADC’s credibility as a genuine alternative in 2027 depends on how it manages zoning, internal democracy, and candidate selection. As political calculations intensify, Nigerians will watch closely to see whether ADC charts a different path – or repeats PDP’s mistake.
Beyond electoral calculations lies a deeper question of governance ethics: will Nigerian parties continue to prioritise transactional power games over transformative leadership, or will they embrace a new political culture rooted in justice, competence, and true service to the people?
Kingsley Oyong Akam writes from Lancaster, UK
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